Global Smartphone Shipments Fall 20%, Apple Share Rises to 22%

Global smartphone shipments in the third quarter of 2026 fell 20% year on year. They dropped to the lowest third-quarter level since 2012. The cause was the ongoing memory shortage and rising DRAM and NAND costs. Production and supply capacity were squeezed, and the overall market contracted.

Reporting by Zheng Tingxu of ifanr cites preliminary statistics from research firm Counterpoint Research. The statistics are on a sell-in basis, showing shipments from manufacturers to distribution channels. Surging memory prices forced supply cuts centered on the low-price segment.

Global smartphone shipments fall 20% in Q3, Apple share rises to 22% as memory shortage squeezes production

This decline is not a temporary drop in demand. It is distinctive in that component constraints changed supplier behavior.

Global Market Hit by Memory Shortage

The memory shortage affected both DRAM and NAND. Higher procurement costs pushed up manufacturing costs. Manufacturers responded with price hikes and narrowed down low-margin models and markets served.

Consumer behavior also changed. Moves to extend replacement cycles strengthened. Interest in considering refurbished devices also expanded.

Demand in the high-price segment remained relatively firm. Price-sensitive markets faced greater pressure. The product mix appears to have shifted further toward the high end.

This pattern shows the linkage between semiconductor market conditions and the device market. Memory is a basic component of devices. Price fluctuations were immediately reflected in shipment strategies.

Behind Apple and Samsung’s Share Gains

Samsung’s shipments fell 3% year on year. Even so, its market share rose to 23%, maintaining the top position. The reason was that its decline was smaller than the market average.

Apple’s share reached 22%. It exceeded 20% for the first time in a third quarter. However, its shipments were still down from the previous year.

Counterpoint attributed part of the decline to product composition. There was no base-model iPhone 18 in the quarter. Sell-in shipments were smaller than for last year’s full-lineup iPhone 17 series.

The coexistence of rising share and falling shipments describes the current situation. Amid market contraction, the combined share of the top two companies increased. Unit volumes and shares moved in opposite directions.

Concentration at the top is also related to differences in procurement power. Success or failure in securing memory affected the sustainability of shipments. Resilience in the high-price segment also worked in favor of the top two companies.

Sharp Fall for Chinese Brands and Shift in

Pricing Strategy

Xiaomi’s shipments fell by more than 30%. Its share retreated to 10%. The contraction was far larger than the market average.

Shipments by OPPO and vivo both fell by more than 20%. Their shares were 9% and 8%, respectively. In the statistics, OPPO includes OnePlus and realme.

Dependence on the low-price segment and price-sensitive markets hurt. Their mix made it difficult to absorb higher memory costs. Price hikes and model reductions pushed volumes down.

Chinese domestic brands increased their share in the domestic passenger car market. In the global smartphone market, however, they retreated instead. Profit protection under component constraints appears to have taken priority.

This choice is rational in the short term. Continuing to sell low-margin models would widen losses. Under supply constraints, focusing on high-margin models is unavoidable.

Broadcom Sees Constraints Shifting

According to Reuters, Broadcom Chief Executive Officer Hock Tan shared his view on October 12. The remarks were made at a panel discussion in Singapore. He said that as AI development continues, capital will become the biggest constraint for companies.

He said the company is overcoming shortages in substrate and memory supply. He indicated that the main bottleneck ahead will shift to capital. The remarks suggest a transition from supply constraints to funding constraints.

On AI commercialization, he mentioned progress in monetization. He said Anthropic and OpenAI have already proven it. He expressed the view that the latest models deployed for AI personal-assistance use are generating substantial revenue.

These remarks contrast with the current state of the device market. On the device side, memory shortages still held back shipments. On the semiconductor supply side, signs of easing are emerging.

The time lag between the two reflects delays in inventories and price pass-through. It takes time for supply improvements to feed through to device prices. The third quarter can be assessed as sitting in that transitional period.

Apple’s Bet on Shifting Focus to Health Features

On October 12, when speaking to ifanr in Beijing, Apple Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook discussed the evolution of the Apple Watch over the next 10 years. He said he wants to make Apple Watch a personal guardian that protects each individual’s health. He outlined a policy of helping users lead healthier days.

He cited sleep apnea as a specific example. Many patients do not know they have symptoms. He said he wants alerts to help them seek needed support.

He expressed the idea of delivering to users information they could not previously obtain. It will encourage better sleep, more exercise, more frequent standing, and greater calorie burn. When necessary, users should go to a hospital and seek a doctor’s help, he said.

This direction is on a different axis from shipment-volume competition. It emphasizes ongoing-use value through health tracking. It can be seen as a strategy addressing longer replacement cycles.

Apple Watch maintenance costs and replacement decisions are of strong interest to users. Costs and Value of Apple Watch Battery Replacement, and Criteria for Deciding to Replace outlines costs and ideas for continued use. Stronger health features could increase the value of long-term ownership.

At the same time, distrust of continuous measurement remains. Unease Over Apple Watch Always Listening, Distrust That Persists Despite Encryption addresses concerns that remain after encryption. The success of the personal-guardian vision hinges on how tracked information is handled.

Semiconductor supply-demand and AI investment trends will also spill over into the device market. Nvidia in Insurance Talks Over AI Chip Financing, DeepSeek and Others Update discusses constraints from the funding side. It shares common ground with Broadcom’s point about capital constraints.

Editorial Opinion

Sorting out the short-term impact. Persistently high memory prices will likely keep supply of the low-price segment constrained over the next 3 to 6 months. Manufacturers will strengthen moves to protect profits through price hikes and model cuts. Consumers will further delay replacements and shift to refurbished devices. A recovery in overall market volumes will have to wait for supply improvements to filter through.

Taking a long-term view. Over 1 to 3 years, ongoing-use value such as health tracking and personal assistance will likely determine device choices. The resilience of the high-price segment even under component constraints shows the importance of functional differentiation. Ensuring trust in how information is handled will be a condition for wider adoption. The linkage among devices, semiconductors, and financing will grow even stronger.

Questions from the editors. Under supply constraints, who holds the advantage in securing memory is at issue. How should the balance between the benefits of health information and the scope of collection be designed. The path by which progress in AI monetization feeds through to device prices needs verification. How to read the divergence between volumes and shares will be the focus ahead.

References

• “早报｜对话库克：Apple Watch要做「个人守护者」/华为折叠屏出货量突破2000万台/DeepSeek拟入局具身智能”, by 郑廷旭 — 爱范儿, 2026-10-13T00:17:03.000Z (ARR)
• Source URL: https://www.ifanr.com/1683909?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=